Toledo scared Ohio State last time out, and inconsistent Rockets could be set for a big season: Buckeyes schedule breakdown

Columbus, Ohio — Crush opponents on 2022 Ohio State Football Scheduleit’s the third in a series and moves to Game Week 3: Toledo at Ohio State in prime time.

Toledo at Ohio State, Sept. 17, 7 p.m., Fox

The Rockets have the most talent in the MAC, but they haven’t played that way in recent years. The head coach Jason Candle enters 7th grade – he was 20-7 in his first two seasons and 24-20 in his last four. Last season showed Toledo’s inconsistency — the Rockets nearly beat Notre Dame in Week 2, falling 32-29 at South Bend. The Rockets scored two touchdowns late in the fourth quarter to take the lead, forcing the Irish to throw a game-winning TD pass with just over a minute left. The Rockets followed that up the following week with a loss to a Colorado State team that went 3-9. Toledo finished the year 7-6.

This could be the MAC’s best team this season, and that means there’s a cap for this team that could make a competitive game in Columbus. But the ups and downs also mean you don’t know which Toledo team you’ll get, other than the one that’s going to incur a lot of penalties. Toledo averaged 10 penalties for 90 yards per game last season, the worst in the nation of 130 teams.

The Rockets were 35-15 matt campbellfrom 2012 to 2015, and that landed Campbell the job at Iowa State. Toledo is not so good right now. But there have been flashes to make you think this level might come back. For now, the Rockets are a 6while potentially being lined up for their best season since going 11-3 in 2017.

Jason Candle’s (white shirt) best season in Toledo was in 2017, when the Rockets won the MAC title.PA

Ohio State‘s success story against teams from Ohio and the MAC. The Buckeyes haven’t lost to a state team since falling to Oberlin 7-6 in 1921. And since starting regular play against MAC teams in 1992, the Buckeyes are 27. -0 against the MAC and 22-0 against the MAC teams in Ohio.

But Ohio State doesn’t often get the best of MAC. The timing is not there. For instance, Ben Roethlisberger started as a quarterback for Miami from 2001 to 2003. and the RedHawks went 13-1 in his final season. Ohio State played Miami in 2000 and 2005 – right in the Roethlisberger era.

The MAC began playing one game for the conference title in 1997, and Ohio State played four times during the regular season against a MAC team that went on to play for the league crown. Twice, the Buckeyes have dominated this team. They beat Toledo 49-0 in 1998, the year the Rockets lost in the title game. And in 2019, the Buckeyes had their only season in which they faced the MAC team that became conference champions – and they destroyed Miami 76-5.

But the other two times were close. In 2003, Bowling Green went 11-3 and lost in the MAC title game, and the Falcons pushed Ohio State to the limit in a 24-17 OSU win. It was the year after Urban Meyer left Bowling Green for Utah, but there was still a lot of Meyer influence left on that team. And in 2015, Ohio State battled Northern Illinois in a 20-13 win, as the two Cardal Jones and JT Barrette played poorly, and the Huskies suffered an 8-6 season and a MAC championship loss.

So the Buckeyes will almost certainly go 28-0 in the modern era against the MAC. But if the Buckeyes are off, Toledo could be competent enough to make an uncomfortable night for OSU fans.

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Strategist Dequan Finn was Michigan’s Mr. Football in high school in 2018, and the offense is clearly in his hands now. He started seven games last season, and the Rockets finished the regular season winning four of their last five, with their only loss at 52-49 to Eastern Michigan, when Finn threw for 461 yards and three touchdowns. . For the season, Finn threw for 18 touchdowns to just two interceptions.

Finn can also move quite a bit — he’s rushed for 501 yards on 112 carries with nine rushing touchdowns. In a 31-24 Bahamas Bowl loss to Middle Tennessee State, Finn ran it 12 times for 83 yards and a touchdown. Finn should be one of the best quarterbacks in the MAC, with the ability to avoid mistakes and make a few plays with his arm and legs.

Toledo’s defense in 2021 included three players named to the All-MAC First Team, and two of them were chosen in the fifth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Tycen Anderson (Bengals) and Samuel Womack (49ers) are gone. But edge rusher Jamal Hines is back. Hines ranked second in the MAC last season with 10 sacks, and was fourth in tackles for loss with 15. At 6-foot-3 and 250 pounds, Hines could have jumped into the NFL but he remained a fifth year in Toledo, where he has a chance to become a day 2 pick. the NFL. He is not Khalil Mac, who in 2013 at Buffalo showed Ohio State just how disruptive a MAC pass rusher could be. But he has a chance to be the best defensive player in the conference this season, and he should let the Buckeyes know who he is for at least a few plays.

This is the fourth meeting between the schools and after being shut out in the first two games, Toledo almost won the third meeting. The Buckeyes won 49-0 in 1998 and 38-0 at Cleveland in 2009. But in 2011, Ohio State held 27-22. That game ended on a fourth-and-6 play from the Ohio State 17-yard line, as Jean-SimonCounter pressure from Toledo’s backup quarterback forced an incompleteness with 48 seconds left that allowed the Buckeyes to escape. Former OSU Assistant Tim Beckman was the head coach of Toledo, and that performance with an 8-4 record made him the head coach of Illinois the following season.

On scales of 1-10, our Ohio State text subscribers were asked to rate their enthusiasm for the game and their concern over a loss to Ohio State. (Sign up for a two-week trial of the texts by texting 614-350-3315 or here.)

Enthusiasm/interest: 5.51

Worry: 1.95

Ohio State has never lost to a MAC team since the conference was founded in 1946. Maybe Ohio State will never lose to a MAC team. So that 27-0 record against MAC in the modern era could lead us to a 100% chance of winning OSU. It will take a rare moment for this MAC victory over the Buckeyes to happen, requiring a combination of a MAC team at its best with at least one or two future NFL players in key positions, and a team from the Ohio State with serious flaws. The close call in 2011 came during that chaotic season after Jim Tressel was kicked out and Joe Bauserman played quarterback for the Buckeyes. The 2015 game featured a quarterback situation that the Buckeyes complicated unnecessarily, and the result was a close game.

This year, the Buckeyes will have CJ Stroud, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and TreVeyon Henderson with the ball in their hands and Ryan Day calling plays. But we’ll stop just short of 100% because Toledo could really pull themselves together this season. So we’ll give the Buckeyes a 99.5% chance of victory.

OSU chance of winning: 75 percentt, Fan excitement level: 9.58Level of concern from fans: 5.19.

OSU chance of winning: 99 percentFan excitement level: 4.33Level of concern from fans: 1.39.

OSU chance of winning: 99.5%Fan excitement level: 5.51Level of concern from fans: 1.95.

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